基于SARIMA-GRNN-SVM的短期商业电力负荷组合预测方法

针对短期商业电力负荷预测准确性与周期难以满足现有电力现货市场的问题,提出了一种基于SARIMAGRNN-SVM(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized regression neural network-support vector machine)的商业电力负荷组合预测模型。首先,对商业电力负荷变化的周期规律与随机因素的复杂影响进行了分析;然后,结合以上分析,选用SARIMA和GRNN为单一预测模型对商业电力负荷进行预测,并利用SVM进行组合,实现日前商业电力负荷预测;最后,通过某商业综合体的电力负荷数据进行验证。所提组合预测模型较单一预测模型拥有更优的预测精度与鲁棒性,可以为短期商业电力负荷预测提供借鉴。     

城市河流系统治理策略在鹅颈水生态修复中的应用

在简要介绍城市河流系统治理策略的基础上，详细论述其在鹅颈水生态修复中的应用。鹅颈水治理以流域为空间单位，准确把握河流主要问题，综合考量水资源、水安全、水环境、水生态、水文化，坚持工程和非工程措施并重，分阶段逐步实现洪水风险管理、外源污染控制、河流水质修复、河流生态系统恢复的目标。结果表明，鹅颈水目前已基本消除黑臭，水质逐渐提升至国家地表水Ⅳ类水标准。提出进一步加强河流生态系统恢复、优化管理制度、逐步建立全过程和全指标生态监测评估体系、实施弹性管理等鹅颈水系统治理措施。     

内含实体对H型垂直轴风力机气动性能的影响

以H型垂直轴风力机及其内含圆柱形实体为研究对象,对NACA0018翼型的五叶片H型垂直轴风力机的气动性能进行数值模拟和实验验证。分析8种不同直径的内含圆柱体,在内含实体截面积占风轮迎风面积之比分别为21.2%、50.0%和76.9%时,风力机风能利用率的峰值分别下降8.04%、20.7%及74.3%。结果表明：随着内含实体直径的增大,风能利用率的峰值逐渐减小,开始较为缓慢,达到一定值时快速下降。小直径内含实体主要影响叶片在下风区的转矩,对风能利用率的影响较小,而大直径内含实体还会影响叶片在上风区的转矩,其风能利用率迅速减小。对于内含固定直径的实体,比如在现有建筑物外侧安装风力机时,其风轮半径的选择需综合考虑风能利用率和风力机的建造成本两方面的因素。研究结果可为建筑物与垂直轴风力机进行有效结合以提高风能的利用提供参考。     

公众食品药品网络谣言和虚假宣传辨识能力调查——以贵州省某少数民族自治地区为例

目的 了解公众对网络食品药品谣言信息及虚假宣传甄别能力和行为态度，探索防范谣言传播、维护社会稳定的有效措施和途径。方法 采用随机抽样研究方法，对贵州省某少数民族自治州公众开展食品药品网络谣言及虚假宣传辨识能力、行为态度问卷调查。结果 当地公众食品药品网络谣言及虚假宣传辨识能力总体较低，经济发展落后地区的青少年人群对网络谣言及虚假宣传的辨识能力较弱。大部分公众处理网络食品药品安全信息较为理性，更愿意通过国家监管部门权威网站了解信息，基本具备了确认信息真实性的主观意识，但辟除谣言的行动能力不高。结论 地方党委政府及有关部门应加强食品药品网络谣言和虚假宣传治理，加大当地谣言及虚假宣传的监测和系统性分析研究，有针对性、预判性地进行治理和科普宣传。     

Electric Vehicle Charging Simulation Framework Considering Traffic, User, and Power Grid

The traffic and user have significant impacts on the electric vehicle (EV) charging load but are not considered in the existing research. We propose a novel integrated simulation framework considering the traffic, the user, and power grid as well as the EV traveling, parking and charging based on cellular automaton (CA). The traffic is modeled by the traffic module of the proposed framework based on CA, while the power grid and user are modeled in the EV charging module. The traffic flow, user’s charging preference, user’s charging satisfaction, and the total supply capability (TSC) in the surveyed region are considered in the proposed framework. Two cases are carried out to show the interactions between the user and power grid. It is shown that the proposed framework can accurately simulate the interactions among traffic situation, user’s behavior and TSC， which are significantly lacking in the existing research. The proposed framework is scalable in considering additional interrelated elements.     

带式输送机调心托辊的纠偏特性分析

对带式输送机调心托辊的纠偏原理进行了理论分析,在ADAMS中建立带式输送机1:1的虚拟样机模型,仿真分析了调心托辊的水平偏转角度对纠偏能力的影响,并搭建了研究调心托辊纠偏能力的实验平台,对调心托辊的纠偏能力进行实验验证,证明了仿真结果的正确性。     

Quantitative analysis of fuel-saving potential for waste heat recovery system integrated with hybrid electric vehicle

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) with low fuel consumption, low emissions, and long driving range are the ideal transition models between conventional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles. The growing demand for increased vehicle efficiency has motivated the introduction of waste heat recovery (WHR) technology in the automotive industry, with the organic Rankine cycle (ORC) as the most promising measure for recycling waste energy. Currently, only a few studies have been conducted to couple HEV and WHR systems. These studies have mainly focused on the hybrid powertrain control strategy, but lack quantitative methods to comprehensively analyze the fuel-saving potential due to the WHR system. In this study, an HEV-WHR integrated system that includes a mechanism-based dynamic model of ORC and a hybrid diesel-electric truck model is established. Further, a quantitative evaluation method that simultaneously considers the negative integrated effects (increased vehicle weight and increased exhaust back pressure) and the positive impact values of the engine, motor, and WHR system on the fuel-saving potential is proposed. Finally, the influence of two environmental factors (wind speed and ambient temperature) on the fuel-saving performance is analyzed. The results reveal that under the standard highway driving cycle (HWY), the negative integrated effects reduce the ideal fuel-saving potential of the HEV-WHR system from 6.10% to 5.42%. However, the optimized performances of the engine, motor, and WHR system improve the fuel-saving rate by 0.39%, 1.81%, and 3.22%, respectively. The results also indicate that the fuel-saving potential increases from 1.62% to 8.60% with increasing wind speed and decreases from 6.70% to 4.25% with increasing ambient temperature.     

Integrating superstructure-based design of molecules,processes, and flowsheets

The key to many chemical and energy conversion processes is the choice of the right molecule, for example, used as working fluid. However, the choice of the molecule is inherently coupled to the choice of the right process flowsheet. In this work, we integrate superstructure-based flowsheet design into the design of processes and molecules. The thermodynamic properties of the molecule are modeled by the PC-SAFT equation of state. Computer-aided molecular design enables considering the molecular structure as degree of freedom in the process optimization. To consider the process flowsheet as additional degree of freedom, a superstructure of the process is used. The method results in the optimal molecule, process, and flowsheet. We demonstrate the method for the design of an organic Rankine cycle considering flowsheet options for regeneration, reheating, and turbine bleeding. The presented method provides a user-friendly tool to solve the integrated design problem of processes, molecules, and process flowsheets.     

基于多时间尺度和多源储能的综合能源系统能量协调优化调度

考虑源荷不确定性及储能设备配置对综合能源系统IES(integrated energy system)优化调度的影响,提出基于多时间尺度和多源储能的IES能量协调优化调度策略。该策略以系统运行经济最优、滚动控制时域内购能成本与储能惩罚成本之和最低以及设备输出功率调整量最小为目标,分别建立了日前、日内滚动和实时反馈3个时间尺度的优化调度模型。在日前考虑多种储能模式对IES经济性的影响;日内利用场景分析法描述滚动预测的不确定性来提高系统经济运行稳定性;再基于模型预测控制方法,构建日内与实时的反馈闭环优化,平抑由预测误差导致的系统功率波动。仿真结果表明:多源储能模式有助于提高IES的经济性;多时间尺度调度既可以保证IES运行的经济性,又能有效降低不确定性对系统实际运行的影响,减轻电网平抑功率波动负担。     

Risks of modular integrated construction: A review and future research directions

Stakeholders remain skeptical in adopting modular integrated construction (MiC) because of the associated risks and uncertainties, although its benefits have been extensively documented. The unique business model of MiC nurtures several risks and uncertainties different from those of the conventional construction approach. Despite the growing attention on MiC with its market expansion, no systematic evaluation is in place to monitor its risks research progress. Accordingly, this research reviewed published literature addressing the risks associated with MiC from 1992 to 2019. Analysis reveals that the research publications on risks of MiC witnessed a steady growth, with considerable progress occurring in the last decade. Result implies that the risk of MiC has gained extra attention in the construction engineering and management domain in recent times. Existing empirical studies have focused heavily on perceived implementation risks, supply chain risks, schedule risks, investment risks, structural risks, ergonomic risks, and MiC risk management strategies, which indicate that MiC is associated with a host of risk events. The research further identified the critical risk events (CREs) in the application of MiC based on frequency of occurrence. The identified CREs contributes to the checklists of risk events in the implementation of offsite construction (OSC). The latter may be useful in risk planning, especially where the MiC is less developed, and fewer or no bespoke risk assessment exists. Research gaps in existing studies are highlighted in this research, and areas for further studies are then proposed. Thus, it makes a useful contribution to the scholarly literature on the risk of OSC and may prove useful to offsite construction researchers, industry practitioners, and project managers.